Powerful Storm Brewing – Gusty Winds & Heavy Rainfall Likely

October 17, 2011

An extremely powerful early Fall weather system is brewing and will begin developing as early as tomorrow. A strong low pressure system induced by a strong polar vortex will merge and morph with a disturbance coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance moving North out of the Gulf of Mexico will bring an abundant amount of moisture with it. As the warm and moist tropical air moves North, the warm and moist air (latent heat release) will help strengthen the morphed weather system as it travels North along the Spine of the Appalachian Mountains.

The water vapor imagery essentially tells the story this evening. You can see the large area of disturbed weather across portions of the Gulf of Mexico. The second system that will be a factor in this eventual large and phased weather system is a developing weather system across portions of Colorado. The extremely dry air across portions of Arizona and New Mexico is associated with our third player in this developing storm system and that is a very strong jet stream.

Nearly all of our forecast guidance has locked on to a solution of a strong weather system developing and moving into portions of the Midwest and Eastern Ohio Valley.

As the weather system begins to develop along the East Coast on Tuesday, strong and severe storms will be possible across the Southeastern United States. Increasing shear and an extremely tropical and buoyant atmosphere will lead to the threat of tornadoes from Florida into Georgia and eventually South Carolina.

This strengthening weather system will bomb out across portions of the Eastern Ohio Valley, strengthening possibly to as low or near 980 mb. This type of track is rare, as most storms that develop in this manner have a coastal low that transfers off the Mid Atlantic coast and tracks up the Northeast coast verses strengthening over land.

The track of his system means that a very large area will be impacted with heavy rain occurring from Florida all the way up the Appalachians, through the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Interior Northeast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As the system reaches it’s peak intensity over the Eastern Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lake states Wednesday and Thursday, extremely strong winds are also possible. You can see the tight wind field noted by the extremely close isobars around the low pressure.

With extremely impressive height falls as the low pressure deepens, it is not out of the question that some light snow could fall across portions of Northern Illinois, Southern and Eastern Wisconsin, Northern and Northwestern Indiana and Western Michigan. Obviously with extremely warm ground temperatures and fairly warm lower and mid level temperatures, no accumulation would occur, but the fact that some wet snowflakes are possible is definitely impressive.

Stay tuned to our facebook page for the latest on this developing storm system over the next 24-48 hours (www.Facebook.com/SWATChasers).


Arcanum Fire Prevention Day Forecast

September 25, 2011

The Arcanum Fire Department will be holding their third annual Fire Prevention & Public Safety Day this Saturday, October 1st, 2011. For once, the weather is looking like it should be a pretty nice day with sunny skies and temperatures in the 60′s!

Here is the forecast and schedule of events for the day!

11:30 AM: Fire Prevention Parade (Beginning at the new school)
12:00 PM: Opening Ceremony
12:00 PM – 2:00 PM: Registration for Kids Prizes
12:00 PM – 1:00 PM: Lunch served by the Arcanum Fire Dept Lady Auxiliary
12:00 PM – 1:00 PM: Fire Truck/Squad/Police Demonstrations/Tours
12:00 PM – 1:30 PM: Fire Truck Rides
12:00 PM – 3:00 PM: Moon Bounce
12:30 PM – 2:00 PM: Smoke Trailer Demonstrations
2:00 PM – 3:00 PM: Games & Prizes
3:00 PM – 4:00 PM: Careflight Helicopter Demonstration
3:00 PM – 4:00 PM: Adult Prizes & Cake Walks


Heat Advisory Issued for Monday & Tuesday

July 18, 2011
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-  
051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088-190230-  
/O.NEW.KILN.HT.Y.0004.110719T1600Z-110720T0100Z/  
/O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110719T0100Z/  
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-  
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-  
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-  
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-  
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-  
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-  
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...  
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...  
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...  
OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVET...  
MAYSVILLE...VANCEBURG...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...  
GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...  
PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...  
EATON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...  
LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...  
LOGAN...MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO...WEST UNION...PIKETON...  
PORTSMOUTH  
228 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011  
   
..HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
   
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A HEAT  
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY. A  
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.  
  
* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 105.  
  
* TIMING...HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 WILL OCCUR DURING THE  
 AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
 INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  
  
* IMPACTS...HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT STROKE AND OTHER HEAT RELATED  
 ILLNESSES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU SPEND A  
 SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME OUTDOORS...OR ARE INVOLVED IN ANY  
 STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN  
POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR  
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT  
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN  
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.  
  
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND  
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS  
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY  
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE  
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.  
  
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN  
POSSIBLE, RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR  
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT  
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN  
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.  
  
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND  
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS  
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY  
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE  
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.  

Heat Wave Continues

July 18, 2011

The dangerous heat wave continues across much of the Central United States including the Ohio Valley. The dangerous heat wave has prompted the National Weather Service to hoist numerous Heat Advisories, Watches and Warnings. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Darke County both today and Tuesday. The heat advisories, watches and warnings will likely remain in effect through next weekend.

As of 3:00 PM today (Monday, July 18th, 2011), temperatures are already heating up with 90 degree readings being reported over a large area.

Our forecast guidance shows the heat persisting for much of the week and into the weekend.

Don’t forget, if you have ever wanted to take a storm chase/tornado tour, you can now book your 2012 tour with SWATTours.com


Dangerous Heat Wave Expected

July 16, 2011

A dangerous heat wave is expected to impact the Eastern 2/3′s of the Nation beginning this weekend and continuing through much of next week. A ridge will build North across the United States allowing a hot dome of air to entrench much of the country. The heat dome along with excessive amounts of moisture and high dewpoints will create very high heat index values. Dewpoint values (an absolute measure of the amount of moisture in the air) will range from 70 to 80 degrees from Sunday through at least Thursday. As outlined below, dewpoint values above 70 begin to create that “sticky” factor in the air, while dewpoints above 75 degrees cause conditions to become extremely miserable.

  • Dewpoint below 60 – Not humid at all
  • Dewpoint at 65 – Noticeable stickiness
  • Dewpoint at 70 – Very sticky
  • Dewpoint above 75- Horrible! You are sweating walking to the car!

Dewpoints and humidity values remain comfortable across most of Indiana and Ohio, but humidity levels and dewpoint levels are increasing to our West.

The map above shows dewpoints across Missouri and even into Illinois at or above 70 degrees. Our forecast models/depictions show that dewpoints will increase across Indiana and Western Ohio on Saturday and even more so on Sunday.

To go along with the high dewpoints, temperatures will also increase each day with a stretch of 90 degree or higher days beginning Sunday and likely continuing through Thursday. As the ridge slides East, the dome of heat will be centered on the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and Thursday and the hottest temperatures will likely occur on those days. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will climb into the middle 90′s with even higher readings possible Wednesday and Thursday.

With a long duration heat wave expected, the National Weather Service will likely be issuing Excessive Heat Warnings for much of Indiana and Ohio. This is a dangerous situation due to the prolonged nature of the heat wave. I’ll have updates throughout the weekend so stay tuned!

P.S. If you know of anyone who has ever wanted to take a Storm Chase Tour, direct them to SWATTours.com! Our company is up and running and we are taking reservations for the 2012 season!


Finally Drying Out?

May 3, 2011

Yes, it appears we will finally dry out with rain moving to our East and a couple of dry days possible. A cold front will continue to swing through the area this afternoon, therefore it will be remain brisk and overcast. Very chilly temperatures are possible tonight with lows falling into the mid 30′s. With light to moderate winds, a moist soil and overcast skies tonight, I feel the threat of frost is relatively low.

Wednesday will continue to be overcast before sunny skies dominate the weather on Thursday. A general warming trend is likely through the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures next week will climb even warmer into the 70′s and 80′s!

A chance for rain and storms will return over the weekend with a better chance of widepsread storms and possible severe weather next week.


Severe Weather and Flooding Likely

April 24, 2011

What will likely go down in the record books as one of the most significant floods of the decade, if not century will impact Southern Indiana over the next week. Farther North, significant flooding also poses a threat across Central and Northern Indiana and Western Ohio.

As much as 5-10 inches of rain could fall across Indiana and Western Ohio through Thursday. Round after round of heavy rain is likely beginning late this evening and continuing through Thursday. Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for nearly all of Southern and Eastern Indiana into Western Ohio and additional flood and flash flood watches will likely be issued for Northern and Central Indiana by later today.

Strong and severe thunderstorms will become a possibility beginning tomorrow (Monday) evening and the threat for severe weather will continue through Thursday. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will be possible.

It will be a very active weather week. I’ll have continuing coverage throughout the weekend.

Here is the National Weather Service rainfall forecast through this week.


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